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It's No Optical Illusion—U.S. Stocks Really Are Expensive


Valuing stocks based on what companies are expected to earn over the next year presents some thorny problems. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t pay attention to those expectations.

The Covid-19 crisis has put earnings estimates through the wringer. Over the next four quarters, analysts polled by Refinitiv forecast that earnings for companies in the S&P 500 will be down about 20% from a year earlier. At the start of the year they expected earnings growth of over 10% for the same period.



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